![]() ![]() It provides added insurance against bad luck early on, helps protect your investment in our service, and also lets you take greater advantage of all the research we do. So if you are serious enough about survivor pools that you'll buy our NFL Survivor Picks product, we strongly recommend playing multiple entries in your pool(s). All of our customers need to be prepared for this. It's much better to win once and come in dead last the next nine years, than to do pretty well (but not win anything) for ten years straight.Įvery week, there is a very real chance that our top recommended pick will lose, whether it's Week 1 or Week 15. But if you're playing to maximize winnings, like we do, you do what the numbers say. That moves optimal strategy for survivor pools even more toward a highly volatile, "boom or bust" type of approach. So taking some additional risk with your picks in the opening weeks often increases your expected winnings. In addition, years of research has demonstrated that in most survivor pools, the majority of players is too conservative early on. It's pretty crazy when you think about it. Translation: Even playing it as safe as possible, the life expectancy of a typical survivor entry is around 3 weeks. So even if you play it safe and pick the most likely teams to win each week, you'd typically have about a 1-in-5 chance of your pick losing every single week. It's relatively rare for any NFL team to have an 80% chance or greater of winning a game. Probably more than any other pool, the format of survivor pools greatly exposes every player to the cruel whims of randomness. Playing in NFL survivor pools is less risky than playing the lottery, but it's still a huge gamble. We would be crazy to guarantee that or set that expectation.
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